The Impact of Small Increases in Black Voter Turnout
Decatur Metro | October 6, 2008As I’m sure you know, today’s the last day to register to vote. Hopefully you’ve been alerted to this in countless other places and have already taken action. If not, you’re probably out of luck unless you get your application in the mail before the Post Office closes today.
In that vein, the great electoral projection site FiveThirtyEight has a great, new analysis on how a slight increase in Georgia’s black voter turnout (from its 2004 level of 25.4% to 30%) could make the presidential race mighty interesting in this traditionally red state. As the post points out, if you think a 4-point increase is unreasonable, note that early voter turnout has been 40% black.
Of course, if Obama wins Georgia this way, its pretty much a sure bet he’ll have also won other southern states like North Carolina and Virginia. So we wouldn’t really decide the election or anything. However, it might spell trouble for the likes of Saxby Chambliss.
But Saxby’s still way ahead of Jim Martin in Georgia, isn’t he?
What’s that? Its now looking like a horse race? Really?
Sounds like Saxby might have a little trouble right here in River City…